England heads into Euro 2024 as the favorites to win, with a 19.9% chance according to Opta’s prediction model. This model assesses team probabilities based on historical performances and current rankings, evaluating the chances of each match outcome (win, draw, loss) and accounting for the difficulty of opponent and tournament path. France closely trails behind England with a 19.1% chance of winning. Both teams have nearly a fifty percent chance of reaching the semi-finals. Germany rounds out the top three favorites, with a notable 12.4% chance of winning, especially significant as they will be playing on home soil. Other strong contenders likely to reach at least the quarter-finals include Spain and Portugal. In contrast, Scotland faces a challenging group but still has a fair 58.9% chance of advancing to the knockout stages, although they are in a competitive group with Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary.
